Monday, April 13, 2015

Earnings Will Determine The Market`s Direction

Welcome to the week where earnings, not macro forces will finally determine the action in stocks. Expect good things from domestic companies like United Health (UNH) and for the rest I think it is going to be a case by case.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Earnings Estimates Will Come Down Hard

Tuesday morning we get results from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). The headline numbers for this company are about as meaningless as they come. You will have no idea how Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is really doing until mid way through the conference call when they give you their outlook, their forecast.

I suspect that the company`s earnings estimates may have to come down and down hard because of the stronger dollar.

Don`t Focus Too Much On The Federal Reserve

There goes another week, another week where we spent way too much time focusing on the Fed and not enough time focusing on the actual companies that are impacting their own stocks over earnings, takeovers and break-ups.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Until The Dollar Stops Going Higher It Will Be Very Hard To Make Money

Europe is on fire. That market goes up pretty much every day. We are like the polar opposite until the U.S. Dollar stops going higher it will be very hard to make money here other than a couple of domestic plays. If the dollar stops going higher this money may actually reverse.

There are just too many companies that will disappoint with the dollar going up and if they can get the dollar to go down a little then the CEOs can have something to say that isn`t just cut numbers. Only 30 percent of the analysts have cut the numbers yet based on the dollar so you know there are a lot of numbers coming down.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Transportation Stocks: I Am Very Concerned

Ebay (EBAY): It Is Not My Favorite

People are trying to question wether there is going to be much value in the spinoff because PayPal is under attack. I personally think it is OK. Is it my favorite? 

I like Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) more. If the insiders in Twitter (TWTR) would stop selling for a second they may actually find out that their company is doing well.

A Weak Jobs Report Can Be Terrific For The Stock Market

Here is the bottom line. A weak jobs report can be terrific for the stock market as we saw from the rally. The futures initially got it dead wrong. Let this Good Friday event be a reminder, the futures sellers are as fallible as anyone else, if not more so. And remember, when futures do something that is really stupid, you can always take the other side.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

U.S. Economy: Hiring Is Slowing Down

The numbers here are horrible. There is a big deceleration in hiring, that is very clear.

Stock Market: April May Be A Weak Month

April could be weak because is the first time in 5 years that I expect to see very big number cuts.

Coca-Cola (KO) Is Overvalued

I think Coca-Cola (KO) is overvalued, perhaps. If they buy Keurig Green Mountain Inc (GMCR) and if they buy Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) then I will change my posture on Coca Cola.